Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 2.271995 2.400741 2.540515 2.705052 2.895528 3.111852 3.380357
2025-10-12 2.182262 2.352466 2.546261 2.787617 3.087016 3.456833 3.968017
2025-10-19 2.077315 2.266610 2.488599 2.775393 3.148532 3.639097 4.379751
2025-10-26 2.004387 2.208431 2.453557 2.780221 3.223541 3.841522 4.862961
2025-11-02 1.919311 2.127824 2.382236 2.728292 3.211675 3.914460 5.160770
2025-11-09 1.858923 2.073009 2.338130 2.706047 3.235084 4.038915 5.582065
2025-11-16 1.808834 2.027667 2.302285 2.690394 3.263816 4.173391 6.072041
2025-11-23 1.763287 1.985378 2.267277 2.672066 3.284828 4.296530 6.594664
2025-11-30 1.736188 1.965055 2.259496 2.690474 3.362757 4.531672 7.526985
2025-12-07 1.673566 1.896018 2.182931 2.604421 3.265726 4.427449 7.481974
2025-12-14 1.640014 1.863762 2.154687 2.587109 3.278502 4.535414 8.153760
2025-12-21 1.603009 1.825603 2.116657 2.552835 3.259671 4.577285 8.652764
2025-12-28 1.595506 1.827329 2.134998 2.606392 3.399182 4.988162 11.247044
2026-01-04 1.595317 1.838494 2.166622 2.682193 3.588225 5.580816 17.666097
2026-01-11 1.568595 1.812553 2.144115 2.670934 3.615498 5.789060 23.771448
2026-01-18 1.548230 1.794519 2.132037 2.675331 3.672943 6.101955 44.035909
2026-01-25 1.514132 1.756548 2.089553 2.627616 3.622606 6.087475 60.160814
2026-02-01 1.489547 1.731062 2.064416 2.607140 3.625162 6.239205 NaN
2026-02-08 1.467959 1.709121 2.043664 2.592722 3.638551 6.433723 NaN
2026-02-15 1.446798 1.687201 2.022165 2.575834 3.645051 6.611162 NaN
2026-02-22 1.435816 1.679140 2.020818 2.592778 3.725197 7.098203 NaN
2026-03-01 1.399918 1.635284 1.964748 2.513431 3.588726 6.697766 NaN
2026-03-08 1.381951 1.616394 1.945739 2.497435 3.591235 6.862492 NaN